On the urbanization of poverty

In the context of a simple model of the urbanization of poverty in a developing country, conditions are identified under which the poor urbanize faster than the nonpoor. This is found to be consistent with cross-sectional data for 39 countries and time series data for India. However, the estimated empirical model suggests that the urban poverty rate rises slowly relative to the rural rate. It is predicted that 60% of the poor will still live in rural areas by the time half the population of the developing world lives in urban areas. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.