Reducing vulnerability to climate variability in Southern Africa: The growing role of climate information

Since the devastating southern Africa drought of 1991/92 awareness has grown of the potential to better manage climate variability in the region through seasonal climate forecasting and monitoring of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While other factors besides ENSO affect southern Africa's climate, and climate forecasting for the region is not based exclusively on ENSO, a major El Nino beginning in 1997 captured the attention of policy-makers and the public. Awareness of drought risks associated with the 1997/98 event was greater than during previous El Ninos in 1991/92 and 1994/95. Mitigation and planning efforts also began earlier, with drought early warnings widely available and being taken seriously prior to the 1997/98 agricultural season. Actions taken include issuance of guidance to the public, on-going monitoring and preparedness efforts including the development of national preparedness plans in some countries, pre-positioning of food stocks, donor coordination, and greater reliance on the private-sector for meeting regional food needs. Although 1998 regional crop production was slightly below average, a major drought did not materialize. Nonetheless the experience is likely to ultimately strengthen capacity within the region to manage climate variability over the long term.