The environmental and economic consequences of the developments of lead stocks in the Dutch economic system

This article investigates the developments of lead stocks in the Dutch economy and the consequences of such developments for the environment and the economy. The analysis is based on a dynamic substance stock model that combines physical and socio-economic elements. The model estimates lead demand in different applications as a result of the developments in the socio-economic variables. In addition, it estimates the current and future size of lead stocks, the future outflow of discarded lead applications and related emissions, and the availability of lead for future recycling based on the life span, corrosion rate and recycling rate of the lead applications. The results show that the lead inflow is determined by the demand for its individual applications, which in turn are mainly determined either by per capita GDP or by population growth. In future, the societal stock is expected to change from a lead sink to a lead source. The future availability of lead for recycling will exceed its demand. This implies that lead demand in The Netherlands can be met completely by secondary sources. If a similar trend can be found in other countries, a situation of oversupply may arise with adverse consequences for the recycling business and ultimately for the emissions of lead to the environment. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.