Random fluctuations of snow accumulation over Antarctica and their relation to sea level change

Short-term changes in the volume of ice sheets as analyzed by radar altimetry may not be related to long-term climatic change. Indeed, the large relaxation time of an ice sheet induces a low-frequency response to random fluctuations of snow accumulation. However, the time scale of the response is big compared to the average human lifetime and the effect of these random fluctuations on sea level change may be important even if they are not linked to climatic change. In this study, the relaxation time of an ice sheet is expressed with respect to the ice thickness, surface slope and ice velocity. These parameters are deduced from the precise topography derived from the geodetic cycle of the ERS1 radar altimeter. The variance of the induced effect on ice elevation is found to be around 3 in over a 30-year scale and with a maximum of 10 in in Wilkes Land and in the western part of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Near the coast, this effect can mask a climatic signal and thus be critical for altimetric mass balance surveys. The estimated changes in Antarctica's elevation between the Seasat (1978) and ERS (1993) epochs could be explained at least partially by such processes. In terms of sea level change over the 30-year scale, the standard deviation of the induced effect is 8 2.8 cm. Finally, we show that the probability of a present-day, induced sea level rise of between 0.5 and 1 mm/year over a 30-year time scale is estimated at 10% +/- 10%, with coastal areas accounting for half of this signal.