Examining Latino turnout in 1996: A three-state, validated survey approach

As Latino populations in the United States increase, accurately characterizing their turnout is central to understanding how the post-New Deal party system will evolve. Yet we presently have little data on either their turnout or the dynamic by which such participation occurs. We estimate Latino voting rates in the 1996 presidential election by validating self-reported turnout from a post-election survey of Latinos in California, Florida, and Texas. We then use these estimates as dependent variables for multivariate models of Latino turnout. The data show that the validated Latino turnout was much lower than the aggregate turnout for the 1996 election. In addition, many of the factors that have explained aggregate voting were also significantly correlated with Latino turnout. These correlations, however, were stronger for self-reported than for validated Latino voting. Perhaps the most distinctive feature of Latino voting in 1996 was the significant and positive effect of contacting by a Latino group, which suggests that mobilization efforts may be critical to eradicating the turnout gap and incorporating Latinos into the existing party system.