The young and the realigning - A test of the socialization theory of realignment

Recent research has demonstrated that Democrats and Republicans are divided along religious lines-religiously committed voters (Protestant and Catholic) identify as Republicans, while secularly oriented voters are more likely to be Democrats. This presents an excellent opportunity to test an implication of the Michigan model of party identification-that, in a realigning period, it is young voters who are most likely to reflect the new electoral cleavage. Using the Monitoring the Future archives of over 230,000 surveys administered to high school seniors from 1976 to 1996, I offer evidence that there is a sharp partisan divide defined by religious commitment among youth just on the cusp of obtaining the franchise. Furthermore, data from the National Election Studies (1980-98) confirm that the link between religiosity and Republican Party identification is stronger among younger than older voters.