Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of mortality from pancreatic cancer in Japan, 1955-1993

Age-specific mortality rates from pancreatic cancer (PanC) in Japan from 1955 through 1993 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Age-specific PanC mortality rate distributions between age 30 and 79 years were highly Gompertzian for each and every year for both men and women. Between 1955 and 1993, age-adjusted PanC mortality rates increased 5.1 times for men and 4.3 times for Women. The environmental factor for PanC mortality increased 68% for men and 89% for women over this period. Gompertzian analysis suggests that rising mortality from PanC in Japan may be related to rapidly changing lifestyles among Japanese. Pure alcohol consumption was the identified environmental factor most strongly correlated with PanC mortality.