Meteorological factors of ozone predictability at Houston, Texas

Several ozone modeling approaches were investigated to determine if uncertainties in the meteorological data would be sufficiently large to limit the application of physically realistic ozone (O-3) forecast models. Three diagnostic schemes were evaluated for the period of May through September 1997 for Houston, TX. Correlations between measured daily maximum and model calculated O-3 air concentrations were found to be 0.70 using a linear regression model, 0.65 using a non-advective box model, and 0.49 using a three-dimensional (3-D) transport and dispersion model. Although the regression model had the highest correlation, it showed substantial underestimates of the highest concentrations. The box model results were the most similar to the regression model and did not show as much underestimation. The more complex 3-D modeling approach yielded the worst results, likely resulting from O-3 maxima that were driven by local factors rather than by the transport of pollutants from outside of the Houston domain. The highest O-3 concentrations at Houston were associated with light winds and meandering trajectories. A comparison of the gridded meteorological data used by the 3-D model to the observations showed that the wind direction and speed values at Houston differed most on those days on which the O-3 underestimations were the greatest. These periods also tended to correspond with poor precipitation and temperature estimates. It is concluded that better results are not just obtained through additional modeling complexity, but there needs to be a comparable increase in the accuracy of the meteorological data.