A framework for evaluating the effects of human factors on wildlife habitat: the case of giant pandas

To address the complex interactions between humans and wildlife habitat, we developed a conceptual framework that links human factors with forested landscapes and wildlife habitat. All the components in the framework are integrated into systems models that analyze the effects of human factors and project how wildlife habitat would change under different policy scenarios. As a case study, we applied this framework to the Wolong Nature Reserve in Sichuan Province (southwestern China), the largest home of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). We collected ecological and socioeconomic data with a combination of various methods (field observations, aerial photographs, government documents and statistics, interviews, and household surveys) and employed geographic information systems and systems modeling to analyze and integrate the data sources. Human population size has increased by 66% and the number of households, in the reserve has increased by 115% since 1975, when the reserve was established. During the same period, the quality and quantity of the giant panda habitat dramatically decreased because of increasing human activities such as fuelwood collection. Systems modeling predicted that under the status quo, human population in the reserve would continue to grow and cause more destruction of the remaining panda habitat, whereas reducing human birth rates and increasing human emigration rates would lower human population size and alleviate human impacts on the panda habitat. Furthermore, our simulations and surveys suggested that policies encouraging the emigration of young people would be more effective and feasible than relocating older people in reducing human population size and conserving giant panda habitat in the reserve.