The ability of active versus passive coping tasks to predict future blood pressure levels in normotensive men and women

Casual blood pressure (BP) after a 2-year follow-up interval was determined in 40 normotensive men and women (20 Blacks and 20 Whites), who had been initially tested for cardiovascular responses to a variety of active and passive coping tasks, including active speech, passive speech, reaction time, and forehead cold presser tasks. Stepwise multiple regression analyses were used to identify the best model for predicting follow-up BP. Average systolic blood pressure (SEP) level during cold presser stress was the single most powerful predictor of casual SEP over 2 years, even after controlling for initial resting SEP. Other predictors of follow-up SEP were initial SEP, parental history of hypertension, and heart rate and SEP during passive speech (final model R(2) = .78). For follow-up diastolic blood pressure (DBP), the only significant predictors were initial DBP and male gender. These results contribute to a growing body of literature that suggests that cardiovascular measures observed during stressors have predictive validity above and beyond that of traditional predictor variables.