Models and reality:: Time-energy trade-offs in pectoral sandpiper (Calidris melanotos) migration

We used a combination of modeling and field studies to determine the spring migration strategy of Pectoral Sandpipers (Calidris melanotos). We developed a dynamic programming model to predict patterns that should be detected along the migratory route if Pectoral Sandpipers use a strategy of early arrival at the breeding grounds (time minimization) or arrival at the breeding grounds with excess energy reserves (energy maximization). The predictions were then compared to data collected at stopover sites in the mid-continent of North America and at the breeding grounds in Alaska over a 5-yr period (1992-1996). During spring migration to their Arctic breeding grounds, Pectoral Sandpipers stop periodically to feed. The length-of-stay at such stopovers, for both time minimizers and energy maximizers, was predicted to vary inversely with date and body fat, and to vary directly with invertebrate abundance. We observed that: (1) length-of-stay was negatively correlated with capture date in Missouri and Nebraska, but not in Texas; (2) length-of-stay was not correlated with body fat at any site; and (3) length-of-stay was positively related to invertebrate abundance at the Nebraska and Missouri sites. As the population moves northward in the spring, three regional patterns are diagnostic of migration strategy. Length-of-stay was predicted to be bimodal (energy maximizer) or constant (time minimizer) with respect to latitude, but neither pattern was observed. The migration window, or period of time during which spring migrants occur, was predicted to decrease with increasing latitude for time minimizers, a pattern that was seen for both males and females. Body fat was predicted to increase with latitude for energy maximizers, a pattern that was seen for females but not males. The evidence suggests that males and females differ in their spring migration strategies. Both sexes attempt to arrive in the Arctic as early as possible after ice breakup in the spring. Additionally, females gain significantly higher fat loads than males (up to 60% body fat for females) during migration, and these energy reserves may later enhance female reproductive success. However, females gained large fat loads only during 1993 and 1995, which had above normal spring precipitation along the migration route. We believe that the correlation between female body fat and precipitation reflects an abundance of high-quality stopover habitat during wet springs. This view is supported by model sensitivity analyses showing that the spacing and quality of stopover habitat can strongly influence observed migration patterns. Our results suggest the need to focus additional research on the landscape-level features of the flyway through which shorebirds migrate.