Planning the efficient allocation of research funds: an adapted application of a non-parametric Bayesian value of information

The issue of the efficient allocation of research funds has been addressed using various quantitative methods. Bayesian value of information (Vol) analysis provides an explicit and comprehensive analytic process for the comparison of alternative sources of research. This paper presents an adapted non-parametric application of a Vol analysis of prospective trials comparing alternative adjuvant therapies for postmenopausal women with node positive early breast cancer. The results show that such trials would produce substantial net benefits, though the extent of the net benefits is clearly influenced by the assumed length of usefulness of the research. The application of the Vol methodology shows that such analyses are practical and the recent increase in the use of stochastic decision models in the economic evaluation of health care technologies facilitates further applications of Vol analyses to inform the allocation of research funds. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.