Skillful seasonal prediction of Yangtze river valley summer rainfall

被引：86

作者：

Li, Chaofan ^{[1
]}

Scaife, Adam A. ^{[2
]}

Lu, Riyu ^{[3
]}

Arribas, Alberto ^{[2
]}

Brookshaw, Anca ^{[2
]}

Comer, Ruth E. ^{[2
]}

Li, Jianglong ^{[4
]}

MacLachlan, Craig ^{[2
]}

Wu, Peili ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Monsoon Syst Res, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China

[2] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

[3] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modelling Atmospher Sci & Geo, Beijing, Peoples R China

[4] China Meteorol Adm, Beijing Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2016年 / 11卷 / 09期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

seasonal forecasting; precipitation; predictability; meridional teleconnection; EAST-ASIAN SUMMER; TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC; NORTH PACIFIC; COUPLED MODELS; EL-NINO; PRECIPITATION; VARIABILITY; CLIMATE; MONSOON; CHINA;

D O I：

10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094002

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

China suffers from frequent summer floods and droughts, but seasonal forecast skill of corresponding summer rainfall remains a key challenge. In this study, we demonstrate useful levels of prediction skill over the Yangtze river valley for summer rainfall and river flows using a new high resolution forecast system. Further analysis of the sources of predictability suggests that the predictability of Yangtze river valley summer rainfall corresponds to skillful prediction of rainfall in the deep tropics and around the Maritime Continent. The associated dynamical signals favor increased poleward water vapor transport from South China and hence Yangtze river valley summer rainfall and river flow. The predictability and useful level of skill demonstrated by this study imply huge potential for flooding and drought related disaster mitigation and economic benefits for the region based on early warning of extreme climate events.

引用

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