Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health

被引：124

作者：

Bosello, Francesco

Roson, Roberto

Tol, Richard S. J.

机构：

[1] Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice, Italy

[2] Abdus Salaam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Trieste, Italy

[3] CaFoscari Univ Venice, Venice, Italy

[4] Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Hamburg, Germany

[5] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[6] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA

来源：

ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS | 2006年 / 58卷 / 03期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

impacts of climate change; human health; computable general equilibrium;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.07.032

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

We study the economic impacts of climate-change-induced change in human health, viz. cardiovascular and respiratory disorders, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis. Changes in morbidity and mortality are interpreted as changes in labour productivity and demand for health care, and used to shock the GTAP-E computable general equilibrium model, calibrated for the year 2050. GDP, welfare and investment fall (rise) in regions with net negative (positive) health impacts. Prices, production, and terms of trade show a mixed pattern. Direct cost estimates, common in climate change impact studies, underestimate the true welfare losses. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：579 / 591

页数：13

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