Preoperative atrial size predicts the success of radiofrequency maze procedure for permanent atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing concomitant valvular surgery

Background: The radiofrequency (RF) maze procedure can effectively restore sinus rhythm and atrial transport function in the majority of patients with permanent atrial fibrillation (AF) and mitral valve disease. No previous study has described a cutoff value of preoperative atrial size determined by the discriminant analysis in predicting the success of sinus conversion by the RF maze procedure for permanent AF in patients with mitral valve disease. Methods and results: This study included 81 patients with permanent AF and mitral valve disease who underwent the RF maze IV procedure while undergoing concomitant valvular operations. There was one surgical death (1.2%). Another patient died of acute necrotizing pancreatitis 13 months later. Two patients (2.5%) developed sick sinus syndrome and received transvenous permanent pacemaker implantation. In the remaining 77 patients, there were 38 men and 39 women, with a mean (+/- SD) age of 51 +/- 11 years. At a mean follow-up time of 38 months, 65 patients (84.4%) had persistent sinus conversion that had been accomplished by the RF maze procedure (group 1), and 12 patients (15.6%) did not regain sinus rhythm (group 2). We evaluated the preoperative variables between the two groups. Univariate analysis demonstrated that the preoperative left atrial area and the left atrial diameter of group 1 patients were significantly smaller than those of group 2 patients. Group 1 had significantly fewer patients associated with tricuspid valve disease than did group 2. By multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis, only the preoperative left atrial area was an independent determinant of sinus conversion by the RF maze procedure (odds ratio, 0.961; 95% confidence interval, 0.935 to 0.988; p < 0.005). Linear discriminant analysis demonstrated that the sensitivity and specificity of the cutoff value of 56.25 cm(2) of the preoperative left atrial area in predicting the sinus conversion by the RF maze procedure were 50.0% and 86.2%, respectively, and the positive and negative predictive values were 40.0% and 90.3%, respectively. Conclusion: The preoperative left atrial area is an independent determinant of sinus conversion by the RF maze procedure for patients with permanent AF and mitral valve disease.