Unit Commitment Risk Analysis of Wind Integrated Power Systems

The utilization of wind power generation is increasing throughout the world and it is therefore important that these facilities be integrated in the existing generating capacity planning and operating protocols and procedures. This paper presents an approach to evaluate the contribution that wind power can make to the load carrying capability of a power generating system in an operating scenario. The basic concepts of unit commitment risk analysis are extended to include the inherent variability associated with wind power by developing short-term probability distributions of the wind speed and wind power output using auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) time series models. The operating capacity contributions attributable to wind power are illustrated by application to a small test system and are expressed in terms of the increased load carrying capability due to the wind power generating facilities.