Theory and evidence in international conflict: A response to de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski

被引:30
作者
Beck, N [1 ]
King, G
Zeng, L
机构
[1] NYU, Dept Polit, New York, NY 10023 USA
[2] Harvard Univ, Ctr Basic Res Social Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
[3] George Washington Univ, Dept Polit Sci, Washington, DC 20052 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1017/S0003055404001212
中图分类号
D0 [政治学、政治理论];
学科分类号
0302 ; 030201 ;
摘要
In this article, we show that de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski's substantive analyses are fully consistent with our prior theoretical conjecture about international conflict. We note that they also agree with our main methodological point that out-of-sample forecasting performance should be a primary standard used to evaluate international conflict studies. However, we demonstrate that all other methodological conclusions drawn by de Marchi, Gelpi, and Gryanaviski are false. For example, by using the same evaluative criterion for both models, it is easy to see that their claim that properly specified logit models outperform neural network models is incorrect. Finally, we show that flexible neural network models are able to identify important empirical relationships between democracy and conflict that the logit model excludes a priori; this should not be surprising since the logit model is merely a limiting special case of the neural network model.
引用
收藏
页码:379 / 389
页数:11
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