Modeling plant spread in forest ecology using cellular automata

Cellular automata models are increasingly used in ecology, since they permit integrate space, ecological processes and stochasticity in a single predictive framework. We constructed a cellular automaton model to analyze the regeneration of Alerce (Fitzroya Cupressoides), a long-lived tree species (3600 years) endemic of Southern Argentina and Chile. This species regenerates in open areas produced by large disturbances like landslides and volcanic events. Regeneration in gaps produced by fallen trees is probably less important on large time scales. Using a stochastic dynamic rule and the Monte Carlo method we simulate the long term population dynamics of Alerce in competition with other species, to determine the possible extinction risk of this species of great economic and conservation importance. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.