Numerical modelling of extreme tropical cyclone winds

The paper addresses the issue of numerical and statistical modelling of extreme tropical cyclone winds in coastal regions, leading to the estimation of design return periods of gust wind speeds and the downstream application of risk models. The basic technique is outlined and examples of comparisons with anemometer records for the Queensland coast are given. A methodology is presented for the inclusion of varying surface terrain effects and an example is given of its application in estimating insurance losses across a complex suburban region. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.