Ensemble dispersion forecasting - Part II: application and evaluation

被引：64

作者：

Galmarini, S

Bianconi, R

Addis, R

Andronopoulos, S

Astrup, P

Bartzis, JC

Bellasio, R

Buckley, R

Champion, H

Chino, M

D'Amours, R

Davakis, E

Eleveld, H

Glaab, H

Manning, A

Mikkelsen, T

Pechinger, U

Polreich, E

Prodanova, M

Slaper, H

Syrakov, D

Terada, H

Van der Auwera, L

机构：

[1] Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, IES REM, I-21020 Ispra, Italy

[2] Enviroware srl, I-20041 Agrate Brianza, Italy

[3] Savannah River Technol Ctr, Aiken, SC 29808 USA

[4] NCSR Demokritos, Environm Res Lab, Athens 15310, Greece

[5] Riso Natl Lab, Wind Energy Dep, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark

[6] Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England

[7] Canadian Metorol Ctr, Dorval, PQ H9P 1J3, Canada

[8] RIVM, Lab Radiat Res, Bilthoven, Netherlands

[9] Geman Weather Serv DWD, D-63004 Offenbach, Germany

[10] Zentralanstalt Meteorol & Geodynam, A-1191 Vienna, Austria

[11] NMHI, Sofia 1784, Bulgaria

[12] JAERI, Naka, Ibaraki 3191195, Japan

[13] KMI, Brussels, Belgium

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT | 2004年 / 38卷 / 28期

关键词：

ensemble dispersion modeling; european tracer experiment; model evaluation;

D O I：

10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.05.031

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The data collected during the long-range European tracer experiment (ETEX) conducted in 1994, are used to estimate quantitatively the ensemble dispersion concept presented in Part I. The modeling groups taking part to the ENSEMBLE activities (see, Part I) repeated model simulations of the dispersion of ETEX release 1 and the model ensemble is compared with the monitoring data. The scope of the comparison is to estimate to what extent the ensemble analysis is an improvement with respect to the single model results and represents a superior analysis of the process evolution. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：4619 / 4632

页数：14

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