GIS based models and estimation methods for the probability of archaeological site location

The aim of this research study is to show how a geographical information system (GIS) based methodology can be useful in developing a forecasting model for maps of archaeological site locations. Previous studies about these topics referred to log/autolog models that had, however, connections with outliers in calculating parameters and estimating specific hypotheses on the cases under investigation. In line with recent studies on predictive modeling, in this paper a solution is presented that is based on a combined use of statistics with GIS technology. Geographic information also from remotely sensed data helps to identify the presence of unknown sites in the area under study. This approach was tested on the Cures Sabini archaeological area with good results. One of the most interesting aspects of this methodology is the possibility of converting into an automatic tool the process that produces probability maps of archaeological site locations. (c) 2006 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.