The Flexibility of Fertility Preferences in a Context of Uncertainty

Population researchers struggle to characterize and explain the distinctiveness of the fertility patterns observed in sub-Saharan Africa. Building upon research that documents changing fertility preferences across the region and high levels of uncertainty characterizing daily life for most Africans, we argue that our understanding of fertility preferences is enhanced when we focus on the flexibility that accompanies them. Using longitudinal data from the Tsogolo la Thanzi study in southern Malawi, we examine the sensitivity of young women's fertility preferences to a variety of hypothetical (but common) events that could alter their numeric or timing preferences. We find that flexibility is prevalent (widespread, though not universal), patterned (associated with socioeconomic traits and existential uncertainty), and consequential (positively associated with preference instability, non-use of modern contraceptives, and surprise pregnancy). Within contexts of extreme uncertainty, a flexible orientation to fertility is both a realistic and a strategic response to life's many contingencies.