A useful tool for forecasting the Euro-area business cycle phases

被引：24

作者：

Bengoechea, Pilar ^{[1
]}

Camacho, Maximo ^{[1
]}

Perez-Quiros, Gabriel ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Murcia, Fac Econ & Empresa, Dept Metodos Cuantitat Econ, E-30100 Murcia, Spain

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 2006年 / 22卷 / 04期

关键词：

business cycles; confidence indicators; Markov switching; turning points;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.01.002

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Based on a novel extension of existing multivariate Markov-switching models, we provide the reader with a useful tool for analyzing current business conditions and making predictions about the future state of the Euro-area economy in real time. Apart from the Industrial Production Index, we find that the European Commission Industrial Confidence Indicator, which is issued with no delay, is very useful for constructing the real-time predictions. (c) 2006 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：735 / 749

页数：15

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