Long lead time flood warnings: reality or fantasy?

被引：66

作者：

Golding, B. W. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England

来源：

METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS | 2009年 / 16卷 / 01期

关键词：

weather forecasts; storm surges; pluvial floods; uncertainty; FORECASTS; WEATHER; SYSTEM; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1002/met.123

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

This paper reviews recent advances in weather forecasting capability in the United Kingdom and their implications for increasing the lead time with which flood warnings can be issued. The events of summer 2007 have highlighted the vulnerability of parts of the United Kingdom to flooding and the need for long lead time flood warnings to enable the protection of people and critical infrastructure. Historically, computer weather forecasting models have been unable to forecast at the scales of importance for flood warning, and so the warning processes have been forced to rely on measurements oil the ground. Examples are presented to demonstrate that new forecasting technologies, currently being implemented. enable warnings to be produced much earlier, provided they are couched in probabilistic terms and interpreted appropriately. (C) Crown Copyright 2009. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

引用

页码：3 / 12

页数：10

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