Empirically downscaled temperature scenarios for northern Europe based on a multi-model ensemble

A number of empirically downscaled climate scenarios are presented for 115 locations in northern Europe, based on 17 different global climate scenarios, different choices of regions from which the predictor fields are taken, and employing a technique based on common principal components. A total of 48 different scenarios are estimated for each location, and the ensemble of this is used as a first-order measure of the 'most likely' extrapolation of the current climatic trends. The ensemble spread provides a crude measure of the uncertainties associated with these scenarios. The scenario spread is also used to explore the sensitivity of the results to the choice of analysis details and to identify common traits. The relatively good agreement amongst the various climate models suggests that they point to a common pattern for the winter and that the results may be regarded as robust. The common principal component approach implicitly involves quality control of these climate model scenarios, and the results suggest that most models produce realistic spatial temperature patterns, regardless of model resolution and sophistication.