Lagrangian forecasting during ASHOE/MAESA: Analysis of predictive skill for analyzed and reverse-domain-filled potential vorticity

A statistical analysis is conducted to determine to what extent analyzed and 5-day reverse-domain-filled (RDF) potential vorticity (PV) obtained from meteorological analyses can predict ATLAS nitrous oxide (N2O) tracer structure encountered along the ER-2 flight track during the Airborne Southern Hemisphere Ozone Experiment/Measurements for Assessing the Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (ASHOE/MAESA) campaign. The results indicate that RDF PV shows no statistically significant improvement in forecast skill over analyzed PV in predicting tracer structure along the ER-2 flight track. In fact, RDF generally shows a degradation in predictive skill. RDF does show some success in refining large-scale gradients and small-scale structures, present in the analyzed PV fields. In at least one case, RDF PV captured a filament encountered by the ER-2, but in general, such structure is marked by low confidence in the RDF PV analyses.