System Dynamic Model for Crop Production, Water Footprint, and Virtual Water Nexus

Intended for comprehensive assessment of water usage in agricultural for food production and to address its future, it is essential to scrutinize the dynamic behavior of crop production and its water footprint and virtual water trade. Through the current research a System Dynamic model that can be applied to estimate crop production, water footprint, and virtual water nexus was developed. The system could be applied to explore how water footprint of crop production and consumption change under proposed planned scenarios which differ from each other in terms of main drivers of change. The drivers of change include population, per capita crop consumption, crop trade patterns, crop yield, and climate change impact. The system is developed to be applied at the country level. A case study from Egypt was analyzed applying the developed system. Where, water footprint of wheat production (green, blue, and grey water), consumption (internal, import and export), and its virtual water balance for years 2010 to 2050 were analyzed under proposed planned scenarios. These proposed planned scenarios were varying in wheat trade pattern strategies and impact of climate change on wheat water consumption and its yield.