Predicting the future prevalence of cigarette smoking in Australia: how low can we go and by when?

被引:52
作者
Gartner, C. E. [1 ]
Barendregt, J. J. [1 ]
Hall, W. D. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Queensland, Sch Populat Hlth, Herston, Qld 4006, Australia
基金
英国医学研究理事会;
关键词
TOBACCO SMOKING; TRENDS; PATTERNS; ADULTS; IMPACT;
D O I
10.1136/tc.2008.027615
中图分类号
R194 [卫生标准、卫生检查、医药管理];
学科分类号
100404 [儿少卫生与妇幼保健学];
摘要
Background: In Australia, smoking prevalence has declined in men since the 1950s and in women since the 1980s. Future smoking prevalence in Australia is predicted from estimates of previous and current age-specific and sex-specific cessation rates and smoking uptake in young people derived from national survey data on the prevalence of smoking between 1980 and 2007. Methods: A dynamic forecasting model was used to estimate future smoking prevalence in the Australian population based on a continuation of these current trends in smoking uptake and cessation. Results: The results suggest that Australia's smoking prevalence will continue to fall while current rates of initiation and cessation are maintained. But a continuation of current smoking cessation and initiation patterns will see around 14% of adults still smoking in 2020. Conclusions: Smoking cessation rates will need to double for Australian smoking prevalence to reach a policy target of 10% by 2020.
引用
收藏
页码:183 / 189
页数:7
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