Quantitative assessment of domino scenarios by a GIS-based software tool

被引:135
作者
Cozzani, Valerio [1 ]
Antonioni, Giacomo [1 ]
Spadom, Gighola [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Bologna, Alma Mater Studiorum, Dipartimento Ingn Chim Mineraria & Tecnol, I-40136 Bologna, Italy
关键词
domino effect; escalation; accidental scenarios; quantitative risk analysis; major accident hazard;
D O I
10.1016/j.jlp.2005.11.007
中图分类号
TQ [化学工业];
学科分类号
0817 ;
摘要
A software procedure was developed for the quantitative assessment of domino effect. The procedure was based on a systematic methodology for the identification of domino scenarios and for the assessment of consequences and expected frequencies of the escalation events. A geographical information system (GIS) platform was interfaced to the domino assessment software. The implementation of plant lay-out data to the GIS allowed the automatic identification of the possible targets of escalation effects by the software procedure, and a straightforward calculation of the contribution to individual and societal risk indexes caused by the possible domino scenarios. The procedure was applied to the analysis of several case-studies based on actual plant lay-outs. The results evidenced that the approach allows the quantitative assessment of risk caused by escalation events with a limited additional effort with respect to that required by a conventional QRA. The use of a GIS-based software was a key element in the limitation of the effort required for the quantitative assessment of domino scenarios. Moreover, the results of the case-studies pointed out that the estimation of risk increase due to domino events is an important tool for an effective assessment and control of industrial risk in chemical and process plants. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:463 / 477
页数:15
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