Prospective multivariate analysis of clinical, endoscopic, and histological factors predictive of the development of Barrett's multifocal high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE: Our goal was a prospective follow-up of Barrett's esophagus to determine what clinical, endoscopic, and histological features at the time of initial diagnosis are predictive of the development of Barrett's adenocarcinoma or multifocal high-grade dysplasia (HGD). METHODS: Newly diagnosed Barrett's esophagus patients were prospectively followed with a standardized endoscopic and bioptic surveillance protocol. Features examined by chi(2) and stepwise logistic regression analyses as potential predictors the development of multifocal HGD or adenocarcinoma included age, length of Barrett's segment, hiatal hernia size, severity of dysplasia at diagnosis, severity of dysplasia during surveillance, and type of long-term medical treatment. RESULTS: One hundred-eight Barrett's patients have had follow-up ranging from 12 months to 101 months (mean +/- SD, 39.9 +/- 20.8 months), for a total of 361.8 patient-years. Overall, five patients developed multifocal HGD and five developed adenocarcinoma. The incidence of adenocarcinoma as well as multifocal HGD was 1 per 71.9 patient-years. chi(2) analysis showed progression to Barrett's multifocal HGD/adenocarcinoma was associated with hiatal hernia (p = 0.02), the length of Barrett's (p = 0.001), the presence of dysplasia at diagnoses (p < 0.001) or anytime during surveillance (p < 0.001). Stepwise logistic regression analysis revealed progression to multifocal HGD or adenocarcinoma was significantly and independently associated with presence of dysplasia at diagnosis (p < 0.0001) or anytime during follow-up (p < 0.03), hiatal hernia size (p < 0.02, for hernia greater than or equal to 3 cm), and length of Barrett's (p = 0.009, >2 cm). CONCLUSIONS: Endoscopic and histological features of Barrett's esophagus patients at initial diagnosis are predictive of risk of progression to cancer. (Am J Gastroenterol 1999;94:3413-3419. (C) 1999 by Am. Cell. of Gastroenterology).