Arms races and arms control: Modeling the hawk perspective

Of three major theories developed by post-World War II Americans social science to explain arms races the repeated prisoner's dilemma the spiral model, and the deterrence model, the deterrence model has recieved the least attention from game theorists. I present a amodel of this perspective and discuss its implications for arms racing and arms control theory. Arms races arise in the model when there is a conflict of interest between two states and uncertainty about the ability of at least one side to bear the strains of increased military spending. The model provides support for two common antiques of arms control. First arms control is difficult to achieve when there is a dispute accompanied by uncertainty that could lead to war. Second arms traces, though they occur in times of tension do not necessarily increase the likelihood of war and may even reduce it by reducing uncertainity about relative power.