A breast cancer prediction model incorporating familial and personal risk factors

被引:897
作者
Tyrer, J [1 ]
Duffy, SW [1 ]
Cuzick, J [1 ]
机构
[1] Canc Res UK, Wolfson Inst Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol Math & Stat, London EC1M 6BQ, England
关键词
breast cancer; risk factors; individual risk profile; genetics; family history;
D O I
10.1002/sim.1668
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Many factors determine a woman's risk of breast cancer. Some of them are genetic and relate to family history, others are based on personal factors such as reproductive history and medical history. While many papers have concentrated on subsets of these risk factors, no papers have incorporated personal risk factors with a detailed genetic analysis. There is a need to combine these factors to provide a better overall determinant of risk. The discovery of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes has explained some of the genetic determinants of breast cancer risk, but these genes alone do not explain all of the familial aggregation of breast cancer. We have developed a model incorporating the BRCA genes, a low penetrance gene and personal risk factors. For an individual woman her family history is used in conjuction with Bayes theorem to iteratively produce the likelihood of her carrying any genes predisposing to breast cancer, which in turn affects her likelihood of developing breast cancer. This risk was further refined based on the woman's personal history. The model has been incorporated into a computer program that gives a personalised risk estimate. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.
引用
收藏
页码:1111 / 1130
页数:20
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