Potential impacts of climate change on Sub-Saharan African plant priority area selection

被引:9
作者
McClean, Colin J. [1 ]
Doswald, Nathalie
Kueper, Wolfgang
Sommer, Jan Henning
Barnard, Phoebe
Lovett, Jon C.
机构
[1] Univ York, Dept Environm, Ctr Ecol Law & Policy, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, England
[2] Univ Durham, Sch Biol & Biomed Sci, Durham DH1 3LE, England
[3] Nees Inst Biodivers Plants, D-53115 Bonn, Germany
[4] S African Natl Biodivers Inst, Kirstenbosch Res Ctr, Global Change Res Grp, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa
关键词
Africa; climate change; global strategy for plant conservation; important plant areas; persistence; reserve selection algorithms;
D O I
10.1111/j.1472-4642.2006.00290.x
中图分类号
X176 [生物多样性保护];
学科分类号
090705 ;
摘要
The Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) aims to protect 50% of the most important areas for plant diversity by 2010. This study selects sets of 1-degree grid cells for 37 sub-Saharan African countries on the basis of a large database of plant species distributions. We use two reserve selection algorithms that attempt to satisfy two of the criteria set by the GSPC. The grid cells selected as important plant cells (IPCs) are compared between algorithms and in terms of country and continental rankings between cells. The conservation value of the selected grid cells are then considered in relation to their future species complement given the predicted climate change in three future periods (2025, 2055, and 2085). This analysis uses predicted climate suitability for individual species from a previous modelling exercise. We find that a country-by-country conservation approach is suitable for capturing most, but not all, continentally IPCs. The complementarity-based reserve selection algorithms suggest conservation of a similar set of grid cells, suggesting that areas of high plant diversity and rarity may be well protected by a single pattern of conservation activity. Although climatic conditions are predicted to deteriorate for many species under predicted climate change, the cells selected by the algorithms are less affected by climate change predictions than non-selected cells. For the plant species that maintain areas of climatic suitability in the future, the selected set will include cells with climate that is highly suitable for the species in the future. The selected cells are also predicted to conserve a large proportion of the species richness remaining across the continent under climate change, despite the network of cells being less optimal in terms of future predicted distributions. Limitations to the modelling are discussed in relation to the policy implications for those implementing the GSPC.
引用
收藏
页码:645 / 655
页数:11
相关论文
共 46 条
[1]  
Anderson S., 2002, Identifying Important Plant Areas
[2]  
Araujo M.B., 2002, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V269, P1970
[3]   Would climate change drive species out of reserves?: An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods [J].
Araújo, MB ;
Cabeza, M ;
Thuiller, W ;
Hannah, L ;
Williams, PH .
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2004, 10 (09) :1618-1626
[4]   Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa [J].
Bomhard, B ;
Richardson, DM ;
Donaldson, JS ;
Hughes, GO ;
Midgley, GF ;
Raimondo, DC ;
Rebelo, AG ;
Rouget, M ;
Thuiller, W .
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2005, 11 (09) :1452-1468
[5]   Major gaps in the distribution of protected areas for threatened and narrow range Afrotropical plants [J].
Burgess, N ;
Küper, W ;
Mutke, J ;
Brown, J ;
Westaway, S ;
Turpie, S ;
Meshack, C ;
Taplin, J ;
McClean, C ;
Lovett, JC .
BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION, 2005, 14 (08) :1877-1894
[6]   Design of reserve networks and the persistence of biodiversity [J].
Cabeza, M ;
Moilanen, A .
TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION, 2001, 16 (05) :242-248
[7]   Combining probabilities of occurrence with spatial reserve design [J].
Cabeza, M ;
Araújo, MB ;
Wilson, RJ ;
Thomas, CD ;
Cowley, MJR ;
Moilanen, A .
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, 2004, 41 (02) :252-262
[8]  
Chape S., 2003, 2003 UN LIST PROTECT
[9]   A COEFFICIENT OF AGREEMENT FOR NOMINAL SCALES [J].
COHEN, J .
EDUCATIONAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL MEASUREMENT, 1960, 20 (01) :37-46
[10]  
COLE NS, 2000, FRAMEWORK CONSERVATI