Estimation of the Serial Interval of Influenza

被引：137

作者：

Cowling, Benjamin J. ^{[1
]}

Fang, Vicky J.

Riley, Steven

Peiris, J. S. Malik ^{[2
]}

Leung, Gabriel M.

机构：

[1] Univ Hong Kong, Li Ka Shing Fac Med, Dept Community Med, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Hong Kong, Li Ka Shing Fac Med, Dept Microbiol, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

来源：

EPIDEMIOLOGY | 2009年 / 20卷 / 03期

基金：

美国国家卫生研究院;

关键词：

TRANSMISSION; INFECTION; OUTBREAK;

D O I：

10.1097/EDE.0b013e31819d1092

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Background: Estimates of the clinical-onset serial interval of human influenza infection (time between onset of symptoms in an index case and a secondary case) are used to inform public health policy and to construct mathematical models of influenza transmission. We estimate the serial interval of laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission in households. Methods: Index cases were recruited after reporting to a primary healthcare center with symptoms. Members of their households were followed-up with repeated home visits. Results: Assuming a Weibull model and accounting for selection bias inherent in our field study design, we used symptom-onset times from 14 pairs of infector/infectee to estimate a mean serial interval of 3.6 days (95% confidence interval = 2.9-4.3 days), with standard deviation 1.6 days. Conclusion: The household serial interval of influenza may be longer than previously estimated. Studies of the complete serial interval, based on transmission in all community contexts, are a priority.

引用

页码：344 / 347

页数：4

共 25 条

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