Time to prostate specific antigen recurrence after radical prostatectomy and risk of prostate cancer specific mortality

Purpose: In patients treated with radical prostatectomy who have biochemical recurrence we have previously reported that time from surgery to biochemical recurrence and postoperative prostate specific antigen doubling time are significantly related to the risk of prostate cancer death. We performed a more thorough examination of the association of time from surgery to biochemical recurrence and the risk of prostate cancer death. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively studied the records of 379 patients treated with radical prostatectomy between 1982 and 2000 who had had biochemical recurrence. We examined the association of time from surgery to prostate specific antigen recurrence and prostate specific antigen doubling time, and the risk of prostate cancer death using the Spearman correlation and Cox proportional hazards regression, respectively. Results: Longer time from surgery to prostate specific antigen recurrence was associated with a slower prostate specific antigen doubling time (Spearman r = 0.36, p < 0.001) and a decreased risk of prostate cancer death (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.88, p < 0.001). The 15-year actuarial prostate cancer specific survival rate after biochemical recurrence in patients with recurrence at 3 years or less was 41% (95% CI 29 to 53) compared to 87% (95% CI 75 to 93) in patients with recurrence more than 3 years after radical prostatectomy. On multivariate analysis a shorter time from surgery to prostate specific antigen recurrence was associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer death (3 or less vs more than 3 years, RR 2.70, 95% CI 1.37 to 5.31, p = 0.004). Conclusions: Earlier prostate specific antigen recurrence is associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer death. These data suggest that perhaps time to prostate specific antigen recurrence may be a reasonable intermediate end point in patients treated with radical prostatectomy, although this must be validated in other studies.