Risk factors for the progression or persistence of untreated mild dysplasia of the uterine cervix

To identify the factors that may predict the progression or persistence of untreated mild dysplasia of the uterine cervix, we performed a retrospective review of 118 patients with histologically verified mild dysplasia who underwent colposcopic biopsies between January 1999 and December 2003. Regression to normal occurred in 70.3%, progression to moderate dysplasia or worse occurred in 11.0%, and persistence of mild dysplasia occurred in 18.7%. In regression/progression analysis, progression of untreated mild dysplasia was 34.5% (10/29) in patients with high viral loads (>= 100 relative light units/positive control [RLU/PC]) and 4.5% (3/67) in those with low viral loads (1 to < 100 RLU/PC) and negative human papillomavirus (HPV) tests (P < 0.001). Women with high viral loads had a 13-fold greater chance of progression of untreated mild dysplasia than those with low viral loads and negative HPV tests (CI: 2.494-95.297; P = 0.0022). Those associated with both positive smear and positive HPV test (12/45 = 26.7%) were at a greater risk of progression of untreated mild dysplasia as compared with those with positive smear and negative HPV (0/17 = 0.0%) or those with negative smear and positive HPV test (1/18 = 5.6%). Those with high viral loads and both with positive smear and positive HPV test should be followed closely because of their increased risk of progression of untreated mild dysplasia.