Developing realistic scenarios for the environment: Lessons from Brent Spar

被引：24

作者：

Elkington, J

Trisoglio, A

机构：

[1] HERNING INST, ENVIRONM FAC, HERNING, DENMARK

[2] COPENHAGEN INT MANAGEMENT INST, COPENHAGEN, DENMARK

[3] UNIV LONDON LONDON SCH ECON & POLIT SCI, LONDON WC2A 2AE, ENGLAND

来源：

LONG RANGE PLANNING | 1996年 / 29卷 / 06期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/S0024-6301(97)82814-2

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Why did Shell-renowned for its scenario planning-find itself so badly adrift: with the Brent Spar? And why, later in 1995, was it wrong-footed again in Nigeria? The answers reflect deep currents already clear to the company's scenario writers in the 1980s, but retaining their ability to surprise. The authors conclude that Shell's scenarios have been 'individualist', 'hierarchist' or some combination of the two; none have adopted an 'egalitarian perspective'. They also suggest that the 'Values Shift' scenario-developed for European Partners for the Environment-may hold clues to future shifts in business strategy. Copyright (C) 1996 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd

引用

页码：762 / 769

页数：8