Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets

被引：290

作者：

Rogelj, Joeri ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Forster, Piers M. ^{[4
]}

Kriegler, Elmar ^{[5
]}

Smith, Christopher J. ^{[4
]}

Seferian, Roland ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Imperial Coll London, Grantham Inst Climate Change & Environm, London, England

[2] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

[3] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland

[4] Univ Leeds, Priestley Int Ctr Climate, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England

[5] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany

[6] Univ Toulouse, CNRS, Meteo France, CNRM, Toulouse, France

来源：

NATURE | 2019年 / 571卷 / 7765期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

CUMULATIVE CO2 EMISSIONS; 1.5; DEGREES-C; CYCLE MODELS; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN; SIMPLER MODEL; PATHWAYS; PROPORTIONALITY; UNCERTAINTIES; CONSISTENT; FEEDBACKS;

D O I：

10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

070301 [无机化学]; 070403 [天体物理学]; 070507 [自然资源与国土空间规划学]; 090105 [作物生产系统与生态工程];

摘要：

Research reported during the past decade has shown that global warming is roughly proportional to the total amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. This makes it possible to estimate the remaining carbon budget: the total amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide that can still be emitted into the atmosphere while holding the global average temperature increase to the limit set by the Paris Agreement. However, a wide range of estimates for the remaining carbon budget has been reported, reducing the effectiveness of the remaining carbon budget as a means of setting emission reduction targets that are consistent with the Paris Agreement. Here we present a framework that enables us to track estimates of the remaining carbon budget and to understand how these estimates can improve over time as scientific knowledge advances. We propose that application of this framework may help to reconcile differences between estimates of the remaining carbon budget and may provide a basis for reducing uncertainty in the range of future estimates.

引用

页码：335 / 342

页数：8

共 109 条

[1]

Allen M.R., 2018, GLOBAL WARMING 15 C, P47

[2]

A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation [J].