Has the trade potential with central and eastern European countries been exhausted?

The changing patterns of CEECs' external trade flows raise two questions. First, has the trade potential with Europe already been exhausted? Second, how will the degree of specialisation change in the future? Gravity models estimated using panel data provide answers to both questions. The short-term trade potential is largely exhausted for numerous countries. The perspective of enlargement of the EU will be associated with only a slight additional asymmetric increase in trade flows, detrimental to the CEECs. However, trade types will change in depth as a result of the future enlargement. The share of intra-industry trade in vertically differentiated products will be boosted, while inter-industry trade will shrink. in the long ron however, ail structural adjustments being completed trade flows could increase in larger proportions. Classification JEL : F14, F15, F17, P29.