A weed risk assessment model for use as a biosecurity tool evaluating plant introductions

New plant taxa from around the world continue to be imported into Australia and New Zealand. Many of these taxa have the potential to become agricultural or environmental weeds and this risk needs to be assessed before allowing their entry. A weed risk assessment system is described that uses information on a taxon's current weed status in other parts of the world, climate and environmental preferences, and biological attributes. The system is designed to be operated by quarantine personnel via a user-friendly computer interface. The model was tested against experts' scores for weediness for 370 taxa present in Australia, representing both weeds and useful taxa from agriculture, the environment, and other sectors. The model was judged on its ability to correctly 'reject' weeds, 'accept' non-weeds, and generate a low proportion of taxa which could not be decisively categorised, termed 'evaluate'. More than 70% of the taxa were rejected or accepted. All taxa classified as serious weeds, and most minor weeds, were rejected or required further evaluation, while only 7% of non-weeds were rejected. The model was modified to New Zealand conditions and evaluated against the opinions of several groups of experts and against economic measures. The model produced a weediness score very similar to the mean of the experts scores. The latter were highly variable: agriculturalists tended to accept known weeds, conservationists tended to reject most adventive taxa, and only botanists produced scores similar to the model. The model scores also tended to be independent of economic value as measured in this study. The model could be adapted for use as a screening tool in any region of the world. (C) 1999 Academic Press.