What is wrong with criterion FN-lines for judging the tolerability of risk?

被引:56
作者
Evans, AW
Verlander, NQ
机构
[1] Centre for Transport Studies, University of London, London WC1E 6BT, Gower Street
关键词
FN-curves; societal risk; tolerability; expected utility;
D O I
10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00855.x
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
This paper is concerned with the intellectual framework in which judgments are made about the tolerability of so-called societal risk. The current practical approach is based on the position of the FN-curves representing the risks from hazardous systems in relation to criterion FN-lines. The objections to FN-criteria are that they can give unreasonable conclusions and that they are inconsistent. Statistical decision theory suggests an alternative and preferable rule of minimising the expected disutility, that is average harm, from accidents.
引用
收藏
页码:157 / 168
页数:12
相关论文
共 12 条
[1]  
Fishburn Peter C., 1970, Utility Theory for Decision Making
[2]  
*HLTH SAF EX, 1992, TOL RISKS NUCL POW S
[3]  
*HLTH SAF EX, 1981, INV POT HAZ OP CANV
[4]  
*HLTH SAF EX, 1981, CANV 2 REP
[5]  
Jones-Lee Michael W., 1976, VALUE LIFE
[6]  
Lindley DV., 1985, MAKING DECISIONS
[7]  
Neumann J.V., 1953, Theory of games and economic behavior
[8]  
Royal Society, 1983, RISK ASS STUD GROUP
[9]  
SAVAGE LJ, 1972, F STATISTICS
[10]  
STALLEN PJM, IN PRESS RISK ANAL