Stochastic model for landfill gas transport and energy recovery

Predicting the amount of landfill gas (LFG) that will be recovered at a sanitary landfill is generally associated with a high level of uncertainty, which is primarily due to the uncertainty in the definition of the parameters that control the LFG generation rate and LFG transport. To quantify these uncertainties, a three-dimensional stochastic model for the generation and transport of LFG is proposed. Using Monte Carlo simulations, multiple realizations of key input parameters are generated. For each realization, LFG transport is simulated and then used to evaluate probabilistically the rates and efficiency of energy recovery. For demonstration, the stochastic model is applied to the Kemerburgaz landfill in Istanbul, Turkey. Uncertainty in the definition of three key parameters, namely: the LFG production rate, the waste gas permeability and the soil cover gas permeability were accounted for. Modeling results suggest that the collection system is sufficient to capture most of the generated gas, but that uncertainty in the factors controlling LFG production is the main source of uncertainty in the amount of energy that will be recovered.