Objectively determined 10-day African rainfall estimates created for famine early warning systems

A method of estimation of accumulated precipitation which incorporates numerical model analyses, satellite and surface data has been developed for the African continent. An estimate for accumulated convective cloud precipitation is computed from cold cloud top temperature duration with a bias removal made from the use of rain-gauge data. Orographic precipitation from relatively warm cloud sources is estimated using a combination of surface and satellite data, orography, and numerical model analyses of relative humidity and wind. The results of a comparison of these precipitation estimates with independent rainfall data show this method produces skilful analyses of estimated accumulated precipitation for the Sahel region of Africa.