How many foodborne outbreaks of Salmonella infection occurred in France in 1995?: Application of the capture-recapture method to three surveillance systems

被引:42
作者
Gallay, A
Vaillant, V
Bouvet, P
Grimont, P
Desenclos, JC
机构
[1] Res Natl Sante Publ, F-94410 St Maurice, France
[2] Inst Pasteur, Ctr Natl References Salmonella & Shigella, F-75724 Paris 15, France
关键词
capture-recapture; disease outbreaks; food poisoning; Salmonella infections;
D O I
10.1093/aje/152.2.171
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Despite control measures, foodborne outbreaks of non-typhi Salmonella infection continue to occur in developed countries. The authors aimed to assess the number of foodborne Salmonella outbreaks that occurred in France in 1995 using a capture-recapture approach, Data from three sources-the National Public Health Network (NPHN), the Ministry of Agriculture (MA), which receives mandatory notification, and the National Salmonella and Shigella Reference Center (NRC)-were collected. Matching algorithms permitted identification of matched outbreaks. The total number of outbreaks was estimated by log-linear modeling taking into account source dependencies and the variable catchability. The final estimate was adjusted for the positive predictive value (66%) of the NRC case definition. The dependence between the NPHN and the MA was also evaluated by means of a qualitative survey. A total of 716 foodborne Salmonella outbreaks were reported to the three sources, and 108 matches were identified. The best-fitting model, taking into account a positive dependence between the NPHN and MA sources, gave an estimate of 757 outbreaks. The sensitivity was 15% for the NPHN, 10% for the MA, and 50% for the NRC. In France, routine mandatory reporting of foodborne Salmonella outbreaks is very incomplete, and it is not representative of the serotype and the type of outbreak.
引用
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页码:171 / 177
页数:7
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