Analyzing technological threats and opportunities in wireless data services

The ability to assess the threat and opportunity that technological innovations pose to an organisation's profitability, growth and survival has become one of the key elements in the development of offensive and defensive innovation strategies. Central to this process of assessing technological threats and opportunities is the need to analyze various aspects of identified technological developments. A range of analysis techniques exists, and a number of these are discussed and simultaneously applied to a specific technological development. While threat and opportunity assessment is relevant to almost any company in any industry, it is especially relevant to industries characterised by high rates of volatility such as the communications industry. The technological development, which has been chosen to apply these analysis techniques to, is the offering of 2.5/3G wireless data services, which is currently of great significance in the communications industry. The point of view that is taken is that of a European mobile network operator (MNO) that needs to assess the threats and opportunities that this development poses to its business. The result shows that the analysis process leads to a better understanding of not only the identified developments, their driving forces and enablers, but also their possible impacts on the organisation. This greatly enables the extent to which developments represent a threat or opportunity for a specific organisation to be assessed. In the framework of the overall technological threat and opportunity assessment methodology, the results of the analysis process will feed into the strategy formulation process where possible organisational responses can be developed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.