Forecasting travel for very large cities: Challenges and opportunities for China

Urban travel forecasting, a component of the field of urban transportation planning, has entered its sixth decade, having been introduced in the early 1950s in North America, from which it spread to other developed countries, and then to developing countries such as China. Although this field is relatively mature, many new research directions are being pursued; at the same time practitioners experience ongoing difficulties with applying commercial software systems in correct and meaningful ways. China is presently undergoing rapid urbanization, implying major investments in road and transit systems, as well as airports and intercity surface transportation systems. Wise investment decisions require forecasts of future urban travel in China's congested cities. To understand the state of travel forecasting, the authors recently held discussions with professionals at several planning agencies of China's largest cities, as well as university departments engaged in related teaching and research. Our objective here is to relate the general findings and impressions from these discussions, as well as the message we presented to the seminar participants.