Enso rainfall variability and impacts on crop production in Indonesia

Indonesia's agricultural production sector is very important to the national economy, especially rice paddy production, which provides the staple food for the populace. Farm and plantation crops are heavily dependent on rainfall, with the 1997/1998 Fl Nino event and associated drought producing losses to the economy of US$2.75 billion in that area alone. Using rice production and rainfall data extending back to 1950 for the 27 Indonesian provinces, this paper examines temporal and spatial relationships across Indonesia between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induced rainfall variability and rice crop production, along with some possibilities for crop forecasting using simple lag correlation techniques.