Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modeling

被引：24

作者：

Kapetanios, G.

Pagan, A. ^{[1
]}

Scott, A.

机构：

[1] Australian Natl Univ, Econ Program RSSS, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia

[2] Univ London Queen Mary Coll, London E1 4NS, England

[3] Queensland Univ Technol, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

[4] Bank England, London, England

来源：

JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS | 2007年 / 136卷 / 02期

基金：

英国经济与社会研究理事会;

关键词：

policy oriented economic modeling; model evaluation; VAR models; MULTIPLE TIME-SERIES; PROPAGATION; FEATURES;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.11.007

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

A persistent question in the development of models for macroeconomic policy analysis has been the relative role of economic theory and evidence in their construction. This paper looks at some popular strategies that involve setting up a theoretical or conceptual model (CM) which is transformed to match the data and then made operational for policy analysis. A dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed that is similar to standard CMs. After calibration to UK data it is used to examine the utility of formal econometric methods in assessing the match of the CM to the data and also to evaluate some standard model-building strategies. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：565 / 594

页数：30

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