An Exploration of Future Patterns of the Contributions to OpenStreetMap and Development of a Contribution Index

OpenStreetMap (OSM) represents one of the most well-known examples of a collaborative mapping project. Major research efforts have so far dealt with data quality analysis but the modality of OSM's evolution across space and time has barely been noted. This study aims to analyze spatio-temporal patterns of contributions in OSM by proposing a contribution index (CI) in order to investigate the dynamism of OSM. The CI is based on a per cell analysis of the node quantity, interactivity, semantics, and attractivity (the ability to attract contributors). Additionally this research explores whether OSM has been constantly attracting new users and contributions or if OSM has experienced a decline in its ability to attract continued contributions. Using the Stuttgart region of Germany as a case study the empirical findings of the CI over time confirm that since 2007, OSM has been constantly attracting new users, who create new features, edit the existing spatial objects, and enrich them with attributes. This rate has been dramatically growing since 2011. The utilization of a Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model provides evidence that by the end of 2016 and 2020, the rise of CI will spread out over the study area and only a few cells without OSM features will remain.