A method for predicting long-term average performance of photovoltaic systems

A method for predicting the long-term average conventional energy displaced by a photovoltaic system comprising of a photovoltaic array, a storage battery, some power conditioning equipment with maximum power tracking capability and an auxiliary power facility, is described. System simulation is done over the average day of the month. Average hourly energy flows are estimated from a knowledge of array test parameters, monthly average hourly ambient temperature and monthly average daily hemispherical radiation. The monthly average diffuse component of radiation can be predicted from the hemispherical radiation by the use of an appropriate empirical correlation relating the monthly average diffuse fraction to monthly average clearness index, Hourly average radiation values are estimated from daily values using a statistical model. The condition that there should be no net battery energy gain during the average day enables the correct setting of the battery energy level at the beginning of the day. For a given hourly load profile, for example a constant 24 h-per-day load, a chart relating annual solar fraction with array and storage battery size, for a given location and set of array test parameters, can be plotted as a basis for design and economic optimisation of the system. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd All rights reserved.